AI Market Intelligence

Model forecasts, verified evidence, and runtime context translated into structured market briefs.

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Market Pulse

Primary Focus
ETHUSDT
Bias
NEUTRAL
Model Agreement
100%
High
Expected Move (H=1)
+0.17%
Evidence Quality
Medium
Reason: direction accuracy 49.9%
Runtime Status
Monitoring
No open exposure

Market at a Glance

2 market tickers synced
Ξ

ETHUSDT — AI Market Brief

Timeframe: H=1 (1 Day)Last Update: Aug 5, 2026

A. Current Model View

Direction / BiasNEUTRAL
Expected Move+0.17%
Forecast Close$1,872.86
Reference Close$1,869.75
IssuedAug 4, 2026
TargetAug 5, 2026
Model Agreement100%
Active ModelOrion-II · Fusion-3A · Fusion-3N · Astra-II (in Fusion-3N)
Forecast vs Reference
1,8731,8721,8711,870recenttarget

B. Historical Reliability (ETHUSDT H=1)

Verified Forecast Rows3,240
Verified Days180
Models in Pool18
Avg Error (MAPE)2.38%
Median Error1.76%
Direction Accuracy49.88%
Touch Rate (Hit)73.40%
Recent MAPE1.78%
Days with Avg Error <1%0.0%
Forecast Rows <1% Error32.6%
Summary: Evidence 180d. Charts: overview recent rows (144 rows). Daily sub-1% uses average day error; row sub-1% uses individual forecast rows.
Direction Accuracy Trend
85%48%10%07-28: 16.7%07-29: 22.2%07-30: 77.8%07-31: 33.3%08-01: 33.3%08-02: 66.7%08-03: 66.7%08-04: 27.8%recent verified days
Hover points to see direction accuracy %.
Error Distribution
32.6%
<1%
31.3%
1–2%
22.9%
2–3%
12.5%
3–5%
0.7%
>5%

C. Scenario Map

+

Base Scenario (60%)

Models keep a NEUTRAL bias while price behavior remains consistent with the reference area near $1,869.75. Target context: $1,872.86.

+

Range Extension (25%)

A stronger range-bound extension is supported only if agreement stays firm and recent error does not expand materially.

!

Breakout / Invalidation Risk (15%)

The scenario weakens if price rejects the forecast path, volatility expands sharply, or evidence quality deteriorates against the downside path.

D. Risk Context

⚡Volatility RiskNormal
▣News / Event RiskMedium
⇄Spread RiskLow
⌁Model AgreementHigh
↯Historical Acc. (Dir.)Moderate
〽Recent Model TrendImproving
Overall Risk: MEDIUM

E. Analyst Note

ETHUSDT shows a neutral model bias for the next daily target, with expected move +0.17% and model agreement is 100%. Historical evidence quality is medium, so the useful value is in combining current direction with verified error history, volatility context, and runtime filters.

This is research context, not a trade signal.

What Changed Since Last Update

↑
Bias Change
SHORT → NEUTRAL
↑
Expected Move
-1.60% → +0.17%
↑
Model Agreement
current 100%
=
Recent MAPE
2.09% → 1.78%
=
Runtime Status
Monitoring → Monitoring

Model Reliability Snapshot (ETHUSDT H+1)

ModelDirection Acc.Avg ErrorRecent MAPETouch RateTrend
Orion-II · standalone57.78%1.91%1.56%91.11%
Fusion-3A53.33%1.94%1.50%84.44%
Vega-II · in Fusion-3A53.33%1.94%1.57%73.33%
Fusion-3N51.11%1.98%1.52%80.00%
Nova-II · in Fusion-3N53.33%2.03%1.49%76.67%
View full evidence →

Weekly AI Research Brief

Computed from public Evidence summary and 90d model leaderboard. It does not mean an asset is a trading signal.
ⓘ
Lowest Avg Error
BTCUSDT · 1.83% MAPE
✕
Highest Avg Error
ETHUSDT · 2.38% MAPE
◎
Best Direction Accuracy
ETHUSDT · 49.88% direction
⇅
Weakest Direction Accuracy
BTCUSDT · 49.44% direction
≋
Most Stable Model
Orion-II · BTCUSDT · 1.43% MAPE
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Where Runtime Filtered Out
BTCUSDT
⌬
Where Models Disagreed
No major disagreement in public forecast pool
◈
Strongest Agreement
BTCUSDT · 100%
▣
Evidence Note
Lowest MAPE is not the same as strongest trading signal; direction accuracy, touch rate, runtime state, and risk must be read separately.
View full weekly report →
What ProsQuant is not
Research output, not an investment instruction.
Not financial adviceNot a black-box signal sellerNot a profit guaranteeNot a broker or execution venue
Research only. Not financial advice. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.